If a coalition of democratic nation-states does not have a political ability to focus on military protection of their periphery in a perspective longer than a year, and the advanced military technology fails on sustainability, then the decentralized and privatised militarising of citizens of democratic border states, with less advanced weapons, may offer the only means of a peripheral protection for the democratic area.
What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria (04/27/2022 04:30 AM EDT).
Ultimately, this is a war in Russia’s backyard, not ours. It is Moscow playing the long game here, not us, for this was a war that began eight years ago, not in February 2022. Will policymakers in Washington be as laser focused on Ukraine and the micro dynamics of frontline conflicts in six months’ time as they are today? Unlikely.
(...) Russia’s capacity to drag the conflict out will improve (...) In just two months, the U.S. has already depleted its Javelin stockpile by 33%, and Stingers by 25%. Without an enormous federal surge in investment in weapons production, it will take years to recoup what has been provided to Ukraine and in an age of great power competition, that is a supremely dangerous position to be in. In fact, Raytheon, the manufacturer of Stingers, will be unable to make any new systems until “at least 2023” due to a lack of parts and material, with Javelin production facing a similar timeline.
Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/jaki-bedzie-nastepny-ruch-putina-spojrzcie-na-to-co-rosja-robila-w-syrii/9b5fsv3,79cfc278 (2022-04-27T17:13:11.000Z).
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